Category Archives: Tech Stuff

Bitcoin – frequent criticisms addressed

Select frequent criticisms:
– Economy can not work with a deflationary currency
– Threatening Governments & Order of Society

What’s the problem of deflation?
According to so called “Keynesians” among Economists, economies are driven by demand. That is, products and services are developed and sold to satisfy demands, that existed prior to the product development. Consequently demand is the critical factor influencing welfare measures, namely factors like GDP or more importantly, employment rates and conditions. According to this model, it is crucially important to provide people with incentives to spend their money in order to keep the economy afloat. An inflationary currency is a great means to achieve this objective, as the depreciation of each unit’s value makes it more rewarding to spend money sooner, rather than later. A deflationary currency would lead to “hoarding” of money and a bust of the economy. Additionally, with Bitcoins the economic cycles could no longer be controlled by printing money and are therefore believed to be more extreme.
Paul Krugman (Economics nobel price winner) described Bitcoin as another type electronic payment system and resembling a gold standard – promoting money-hoarding, deflation and depression.

While the Keynesian school is already questioned by many economists, there are good real-life examples that indicate problems. Take the electronics market, which can be considered deflationary for at least 20 years. Every consumer knows, that any device will be available for a significant discount just a few months later. Nevertheless there are no signs of a depression on the electronics market.

How sustainable is our economic model today?
Thinking it through, I am unsure about whether environmental factors might play a more important role than the relatively simple Keynesian model suggests. The economic activity during the last century was relatively constant in terms of almost unlimited economic growth based on cheap fossil energy and geographic expansion both inside industrialized countries (the U.S. are a good example) and spreading worldwide to emerging markets like Asia or South America.
The limits of these developments are clearly visible today, but will most likely be the root cause for economic problems in the near future, in contrast to taxes or monetary policies. As the main achievement of the western civilization was continiously lowering costs for the basics of living (mainly food and accomodation), its economy depends on this advantage to enable people to freely decide what to buy. This whole idea of consumerism is threatened, when the share of everyone’s income that is freely spendable, decreases (i.e. when you need a larger share to buy food to survive).

What does all this have to do with Bitcoin?
In my opinion it is incredibly short-sighted to dismiss Bitcoin as a concept, just because it threatens society and economy as they exist today. Even though the democracy we take for granted in Western countries has existed for more than just a few centuries as a general concept, it thrives only by continiously transforming and inovating itself.
Based on indicators like the amount of people participating in the democratic decisionmaking process or the growing inequality between different groups in society, I guess it is time for some fundamental changes. We might have reached a point, where the role of governments and states has to be changed fundamentally instead of trying to implement small reforms. If the current taxation system is not compatible with innovative forms of money, it’s a good reason to rethink this taxation system completely instead of leaving it to China to profit from macroeconomic advantages of crypto-currencies.
I can not predict, whether crypto-currencies like Bitcoin will be a temporary catalysator or a long-term solution to some of the problems we face with government-controlled fiat currencies, but judging from the attention it raises currently, I consider it to be higly impactful.
Let’s be optimistic and dream about a bright future. Maybe we will look back at fiat currencies the same way we look back to our first cell phones in a few years 🙂

P.S.: I’d love your opinions and thoughts! Even though I am pretty optimistic about Bitcoin I am not an unconditional fanboy and would love a discussion that adresses concerns and disadvantages, so please speak up no matter what you think 🙂

 

P.S.: Have a look at http://falkvinge.net/2011/08/21/bitcoins-deflationary-economy-not-a-problem-in-itself/

Bitcoin

I still remember hearing about Bitcoin a lot earlier but really got involved with it about a year ago. I will not explain all about Bitcoin here, as there’s many great videos and even a whole Wiki about it, but if you do not already know about it, my thoughts will probably give you a few reasons to have a look if not making you downright curious 😀

Not just Bitcoin, but cryptocurencies in general are one of the greatest innovations lately if you consider the impacts they could have on society. The fact, that it is a currency that can not be controlled by anyone under normal circumstances (I am pretty confident, that even the NSA does not have enough specialized computing power available and even if, many Bitcoin clients have blocks hardcoded, thus all preceding transactions can not be reversed) is incredibly important, considering no inflation as the amount of coins has a hard limit and the fact that nobody can take bitcoins away from you. Deniability is more inherent in the whole idea than anonymity, so you can easily transfer coins to a so called “Brainwallet“, where you can remember the keys or write them on a piece of paper.
Despite these great characteristics, the fact that you can send bitcoins to anyone without worrying where that person might be and receive it in about one hour (being notified of the payment almost immediately) with no transaction costs.
When I think about how much money credit card companies make nowadays without providing a real benefit over Bitcoin, I can only conclude either they will lower these fees dramatically (which I doubt will happen) or be a good reason for all kinds of businesses to drive Bitcoin acceptance. Considering the main concept, that you have a private key, out of which the bitcoin address can be generated and the address itself, that can only be used to send coins (and view all transactions the address was ever involved in), it would be possible to have a business operate in a way where stealing money the old-fashioned way is impossible. When the public key is just not present in a restaurant for example, no one can be forced to hand over any coins, since there is just no way to do that. Might be especially useful for any kind of machines, even though I can not think of anybody still buying things like train tickets the old-fashioned way if everyone used Bitcoins.

If you’re not convinced yet, I find it quite entertaining to consider Bitcoin as an asset class. If you’d bought any about two years ago, you’d see the value increased by 200 times and selling the Bitcoins is completely tax-free in Germany (if you held them for more than a year) 🙂
Clearly, predicting the future price is not a serious business, because adoption, possible regulations, security problems and such things can not be anticipated, but considering every person *just in Germany* would use it, there would be 0,5 Bitcoins for every single person by 2040. The current price of about 100€ per coin seems to be incredibly low compared to this scenario…

Berlin is the perfect place to spend a few bitcoins, I tried Room 77 and Floor’s so far and they’re both great even besides embracing Bitcoins!

23andMe

When I randomly discovered 23andMe I was instantly fascinated by their silicon valley approach to just take genetics to a very pragmatic and mainstream level. The idea of concentrating on what seems to be important, but having thousands of people genotyped because the price is affordable seems to be a great idea to get a data basis that can lead to results not possible with far more expensive “traditional” studies. 23andMe offers genotyping for $99, but does not guarantee 100% accuracy (which does matter for the individual but probably not for large scale studies) and genotypes “only” about 10% of the genome (my estimation, I just compared the number of SNPs on each chromosome to the number of SNPs my 23andMe profile has data on; SNPs are estimated to contain about 90% of our genetic information).

So definitely a good deal of motivation to try it out was scientific interest, but I was also curious about what my own genetic code might show or not. When the data was ready I instantly spent about 2 hours reading through the results. At first the good news was almost all quick indicators were positive (no inherited diseases an no significantly elevated risks), but in the details there were a few surprises. For example the overview shows I am genetically lactose intolerant. Although it says “might still be tolerant due to environmental reasons” it is a surprise, because it is just definitely not the case. The genotype however is plausible considering inheritance (you can guess I was not the only person genotyped).

The cool thing about all reports about the risk of getting certain diseases or having certain traits is that it refers to the original studies it relies on and does not just give you a plain result, but instead list all SNPs (and the corresponding genes) that are relevant and the genotype you have. Sometimes it is just one SNP that has a fundamental impact, for example whether you have curly hair seems to depend on a single SNP. There even is a website calles SNPedia that aims to collect all information that is available about single SNPs.

Another interesting aspect of 23andMe is that they allow you to browse through your whole genome (at least the parts they genotyped), so that you can check your variants of SNPs, that are not yet used for the reports 23andMe provides. They also allow you to download the complete raw data in a human and machine readable text format (about 30 MiB)

All in all I am very happy I did try it, I learned a lot about genetics (for example how little effect genetics can have compared to the environment) helped science (at least I hope so) and also had fun in the process. By the way I have 2.7% Neanderthal ancestry.
(And yes, I know that from a data security / privacy perspective it might not be a good idea to send a DNA sample to California and have a small company there analyze it. While I do think there are some risks involved and would not want my heath insurance company to have free access to my genetics, I still think it’s worth the risk. As long as everybody is free to decide, I see no general problem. Read this interesting article.)

Ice Cream Sandwich finally enjoyable

After struggling with it for weeks it seems as if the Cyanogenmod ICS version for Xperia Mini/Mini Pro/Active is finally usable. Right now the latest showstopper bug was fixed and it’s now working smoothly. Of course there are still a few glitches here and there, but except for not supporting Ant+ everything works and I haven’t noticed any crash on Xperia Mini until now. Thanks to the freexperia developers!

In my opinion the ICS features are really worth a few minor bugs, I wouldn’t want to go back to 2.3.7.